The election to fill a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat has become a referendum not only on the new administration, but on , the billionaire who has become one of President 's top financial backers and the architect of his efforts to slash the federal workforce.
The April 1 election is the first major test in American politics since Trump in November. It will serve as a crucial barometer of enthusiasm in both parties heading into next year's midterm elections and is happening in a critical battleground state that Trump won by less than a percentage point.
It's also a test for Musk himself. The Tesla CEO's nascent political operation, which spent to help Trump win in November, is canvassing and advertising in Wisconsin on behalf of the conservative candidate. A win would cement his status as a conservative kingmaker, while a loss could give license to from his efforts to and eliminate tens of thousands of jobs.
鈥淭his is the first major election held since Donald Trump took office,鈥� said Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. 鈥淎nd I think notably Democrats are concentrating more on Elon Musk than Donald Trump.鈥�
Musk, who is the race's biggest donor by far, has also inserted himself into the race, holding a get-out-the-vote event on his X platform Saturday.
鈥淚t might not seem important, but it鈥檚 actually really important. And it could determine the fate of the country,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his election is going to affect everyone in the United States.鈥�
April 1鈥檚 election will determine majority control of a court facing critical issues: abortion rights, collective bargaining and voter access. They include decisions that could have major implications for the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election, particularly if they end up hearing challenges to the state鈥檚 , which could theoretically swing the balance of power in Washington if they are considerably redrawn.
In 2020, the court in the battleground state in a 4-3 ruling. Trump had sought to have 221,000 ballots disqualified in the state鈥檚 two most Democratic counties.
Trump inflatables and America PAC petitions
The Supreme Court race is officially nonpartisan, but the campaign has been anything but. Brad Schimel, the Republican-backed candidate, has openly courted Trump's endorsement, which he received on Friday night, as he campaigns against Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, the Democrat-backed candidate.
The Waukesha County judge and former Republican attorney general attended the president鈥檚 inauguration in January, has said that he would be part of a 鈥渟upport system鈥� for Trump. Earlier this month, he attended a 鈥淢ega MAGA rally鈥� where he posed for a picture in front of a giant inflatable version of the president, which had a 鈥淰ote Brad Schimel Supreme Court鈥� poster plastered on its chest.
He spoke on Musk's get-out-the-vote call on Saturday. And he on stage at a get-out-the-vote rally, where Donald Trump Jr. said a Schimel win would protect his father鈥檚 agenda and keep up GOP momentum.
鈥淲e can鈥檛 just show up when Trump鈥檚 on the ticket,鈥� he said at a brewery in the Milwaukee suburbs. 鈥淵ou have to engage because it鈥檚 not just about now, it鈥檚 about that future. This presidency could be put to a halt with this vote.鈥�
Schimel has also about voter fraud that Trump has embraced, urging his supporters to vote early to 鈥渕ake this too big to rig so we don鈥檛 have to worry that at 11:30 in Milwaukee, they鈥檙e going to find bags of ballots that they forgot to put into the machines.鈥�
Still, he pledged to judge any case that comes before him on its merits 鈥� including potential cases involving Trump and Musk.
Republicans have cast the race as a chance for Trump鈥檚 loyal supporters to rally around their leader and push back against liberal judges they accuse of working to stymie his agenda.
Mailers from Musk鈥檚 America PAC feature photographs of the president. 鈥淧resident Donald Trump needs your vote,鈥� they read. Others warn that 鈥淟iberal Susan Crawford will stop President Trump鈥檚 agenda.鈥�
America PAC is also to sign a petition in opposition to 鈥渁ctivist judges鈥� 鈥� and another $100 for each signer they refer.
Republicans have argued that if even 60% of the voters who cast ballots for Trump in November turn out, Schimel can win, helping to drive momentum for the party heading into next year's midterms.
鈥淚n theory, the opposition party should be energized, but we鈥檙e feeling very good about the energy on our side of the aisle,鈥� said Andrew Iverson, Wisconsin GOP executive director.
Andrew Romeo, senior adviser to the Musk-backed group Building America鈥檚 Future, which has spent millions on the race, issued a recent memo advising Schimel鈥檚 campaign to remind voters that he is 鈥渁 strong conservative and Trump ally.鈥�
Two groups funded by Musk have so far spent more than $14 million on the race, according to a 鈥� with plans to spend around $20 million total.
Musk donated another $2 million to the Wisconsin Republican Party on Thursday, the same day the party gave $1.2 million to Schimel鈥檚 campaign.
Under Wisconsin law, contributions to candidates are capped, but candidates can accept unlimited cash from state parties, which in turn can accept unlimited cash from donors.
His spending has helped make the race the most expensive judicial election in the nation鈥檚 history, with more than $73 million spent so far, according to the Brennan Center, breaking the record set by another Wisconsin Supreme Court race two years ago.
Crawford has also received her own , including philanthropist George Soros and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
Democrats want the race to be 鈥楾he People vs. Musk鈥�
Democrats are hoping to channel their voters鈥� outrage at the Trump administration by casting the race as an opportunity to stand up to Musk. After nearly a decade of running against the president, they see Musk as a potentially more divisive figure who can motivate their base voters to turn out.
鈥淭his race is the first real test point in the country on Elon Musk and his influence on our politics, and voters want an opportunity to push back on that and the influence he is trying to make on Wisconsin and the rest of country,鈥� said Crawford campaign spokesperson Derrick Honeyman.
State Democrats have hosted a series of , including one featuring former vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, and featured Musk heavily in ads.
Crawford has also seized on Musk, going as far as to refer to her opponent as 鈥淓lon Schimel鈥� during a recent debate.
鈥淒on鈥檛 let Elon buy the Supreme Court,鈥� read that depict Musk as Schimel鈥檚 puppeteer.
鈥淭here鈥檚 so many people who are desperate for a way to fight back against what Trump and Musk are doing nationally,鈥� said Ben Wikler, the Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, and as an 鈥渙pportunity to punch back.鈥�
Wikler said the party had seen an 鈥渆xplosive surge鈥� in grassroots and small-donor fundraising from across the country tied to Musk鈥檚 involvement. Both in Wisconsin and nationally, Democrats are packing town halls and angrily protesting the Trump administration鈥檚 firings of thousands of workers and shutdown of agencies. They have also show disillusionment with their party鈥檚 own leaders.
鈥淢ost voters still don't know who Crawford and and Schimel are, but they have extremely strong feelings about Musk and Trump," he said.
What's at stake for Musk
Musk said Saturday that he became involved in the race because it 鈥渨ill decide how the Congressional districts are drawn in Wisconsin,鈥� echoing Schimel鈥檚 claims that Crawford would push through new congressional maps that could favor Democrats.
Schimel鈥檚 campaign has relentlessly attacked Crawford for participating in a call with Democratic donors that was advertised in an email as a 鈥渃hance to put two more House seats in play for 2026,鈥� a reference to the state's redistricting fights that have played out for years.
Crawford has said that she didn鈥檛 know that that was how the call had been billed when she joined and that nothing of that nature had been discussed while she was on the line.
鈥淚n my opinion, that鈥檚 the most important thing, which is a big deal given that the Congressional majority is so razor-thin,鈥� Musk said. 鈥淚t could cause the House to switch to Democrat if that redrawing takes place, and then we wouldn鈥檛 be able to get through the changes that the American people want.鈥�
Musk has also been giving money to Republican members of Congress who have echoed his calls to impeach federal judges whose decisions he doesn鈥檛 like.
He has other interests at play.
Democrats and Crawford have noted that, just days before Musk鈥檚 groups started spending on the race, Musk鈥檚 electric car company sued Wisconsin over a rule banning car manufacturers from operating dealerships 鈥� forcing buyers to purchase Teslas out of state.
The case could ultimately go before the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
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Associated Press writer Scott Bauer contributed to this report.
Jill Colvin, The Associated Press
