Tourism operators in Ontario's hot spots have been bracing for the fallout of U.S.-Canada tensions, but instead are seeing an uptick in demand that some attribute to Canadian staycationers.
Still, experts say a booming summer travel season is not a guarantee across the province amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Prince Edward County business owners Rachel and Scott Cl茅ment say their initial concerns gave way to relief as bookings increased at their cottages in the popular destination that offers beaches, wine tours and camping less than three hours away from both Toronto and Ottawa.
Along with their brother Nick, the siblings own a company that operates tours and manages short-term vacation rentals in the area. In December, the Cl茅ments started managing about 100 cottages at a resort near Sandbanks Provincial Park 鈥� mere weeks before U.S. President Donald Trump signed the first tariff order that kicked off a trade war between Canada and its southern neighbour.
"We were concerned we were going to lose bookings," Scott Cl茅ment said in a recent interview. "But then as Canadians started rallying, I think we realized we're probably going to do better than we believed."
The Cl茅ments said the novelty of their cottage rentals makes it hard to directly compare this year's booking figures with those from 2024, but the resort is seeing roughly 87 per cent more bookings than it did this time last year.
Rachel Cl茅ment said that has provided "a lot of relief."
"Our entire livelihoods are tourism," she said, noting past challenges related to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
"We were scared that we were going to have another economic downturn and another period of uncertainty for the company."
Other Prince Edward County businesses are also expecting a busier summer.
Sol Korngold, general manager of The Royal Hotel in Picton, Ont., says he's seeing about 25 to 30 per cent more bookings than this time last year.
April Brown, owner of the boutique June Motel in Picton, says her bookings are up by about 10 per cent compared to March 2024. Brown also runs June Motel locations in Sauble Beach and Beaver Valley, Ont.
"People are booking earlier than they were last year," Brown said.
Many of Prince Edward County's visitors come from the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa and Quebec. Brown said about 90 per cent of people coming to her motels are from either Toronto or Montreal, while Korngold said at least 70 per cent of his customers come from the GTA, with a "smattering" of visitors arriving from the U.S.
The reported increase in bookings is consistent across the region, said Sarah Fox, executive director of Visit The County 鈥� a marketing agency for tourism in the area. Preliminary data from short-term vacation rental booking platforms such as Airbnb and VRBO projects 30 to 40 per cent more bookings for the upcoming summer compared to last year, she said.
鈥淓verybody is excited,鈥� Fox said. 鈥淥ur operators (have) seen a slight decline in business over the past couple of years, and we鈥檙e still trying to understand what a normal summer season is compared to the COVID years when we had such a huge boom in tourism that we basically characterized as over-tourism.鈥�
In Ontario's Niagara Region, which draws millions of visitors from the U.S. every year, American travellers are expected to contribute to a summer tourism boost.
Janice Thomson, CEO of Niagara Falls Tourism, said the number of domestic visitors is rising as Canadians 鈥渞ediscover their national pride,鈥� but there鈥檚 also an influx of American tourists who are eager to make the most of the favourable currency exchange rate.
"The American visitors are anxious to come here,鈥� she said.
Niagara Falls typically sees 12 million visitors from around the world each year, while the surrounding area draws tourists in with the region's famous wineries and restaurants. Thomson estimates 40 per cent of visitors come from the U.S.
Still, some tourism operators and experts caution that summer travel projections are still uncertain.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no crystal ball that鈥檚 going to tell us exactly how things are going to work out and there is a very real possibility of a looming recession,鈥� Fox said.
Andrew Siegwart, president and CEO of the Tourism Industry Association of Ontario, agrees.
While he thinks that both major Ontario tourism hubs and smaller locations have reason to be optimistic about a busy season ahead, some businesses may see a slower start.
Many tourism businesses are waiting to see whether tensions between Canada and the U.S. escalate before hiring staff for the summer and planning marketing campaigns or expansions, Siegwart said.
鈥淚t鈥檒l impact readiness for when things open up,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a short-term issue but it can drive longer-term service delivery down the track."
There are also concerns about how Trump's tariffs 鈥� particularly those affecting the province's auto industry 鈥� will affect jobs and income levels in Ontario.
And just because fewer Canadians are travelling across the border, that doesn't necessarily mean Ontarians will stay in the province this summer, Siegwart warned. While staycations boosted Ontario's tourism industry during the pandemic, travellers now have the option to visit other parts of Canada or head abroad, he said.
A survey done for Destination Ontario found that 75 per cent of American respondents weren't likely to factor U.S.-Canada tensions into their own Ontario travel plans but maintaining that market is still important, Siegwart said.
While removing American flags or booing the U.S. national anthem at sporting events may "scratch an itch" in the current political climate, Siegwart said it鈥檚 also important for Ontario to remain hospitable to all visitors.
鈥淭he 'elbows up' policy is important, but so too is the arms open on hospitality."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 30, 2025.
Cassidy McMackon, The Canadian Press
