What was supposed to be a weekend look at the state of federal politics has become our last survey related to the tenure of Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister. The results outline a country where specific regions are solidly behind the Conservative party, and where the idea of a merger between the Liberal party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) does little to change perceptions.
This past Sunday, the Conservatives could count on the support of 47 per cent of decided Canadian voters, up seven points since a Research Co. poll conducted in August 2024, and with majority support in Atlantic Canada (58 per cent), British Columbia (54 per cent) and Ontario (51 per cent). There is no gender gap, with equal proportions of men and women willing to vote for the party led by Pierre Poilievre.
The Liberals are a distant second across the country with 21 per cent (down four points), followed by the NDP (15 per cent, down two points), the Bloc Québécois (10 per cent, up one point), the Green Party (three per cent, down three points) and the People’s Party (two per cent, unchanged).
In Ontario and Quebec—key provinces for anyone seeking a majority government—many voters have abandoned the Liberal party. The Conservatives are first in Ontario with 51 per cent, with the Liberals 28 points behind (23 per cent). Quebec sees the Bloc in first place (37 per cent), followed by the Conservatives (29 per cent) and the Liberals (21 per cent).
Poilievre begins the year with an approval rating of 52 per cent (unchanged), significantly superior to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (39 per cent, down three points), Trudeau (34 per cent, unchanged), Elizabeth May of the Greens (33 per cent, down two points) and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (23 per cent, down three points).
The complexity of the task ahead for Trudeau and the Liberals is also evident on two other questions. Almost two in five Canadians (39 per cent, up two points) think Poilievre would make the best prime minister out of the current federal party leaders, with Trudeau at 21 per cent (down one point) and Singh at 12 per cent (down two points). When asked about economic management, more Canadians say they would be comfortable with Poilievre calling the shots in Ottawa (55 per cent, up one point) than maintaining Trudeau (34 per cent, unchanged).
The appetite from Canadians to see real collaboration between the Liberals and the New Democrats has not grown. This month, only 33 per cent support a full merger between the two parties (down three points since a similar exercise carried out in October 2023), 34 per cent would prefer an agreement to only run candidates from one of the two parties in every riding in Canada (down one point) and 41 per cent (down seven points) would like to see a formal deal to share power in a coalition government.
A unified political organization under the current Liberal or NDP leaders fails to make an impression on Canadians. With Trudeau at the helm, the merged party attracts 31 per cent of decided voters (down five points), 17 points behind the Conservatives (48 per cent, up six points). With Singh as leader, the Conservatives are ahead by 12 points at the national level (46 per cent to 34 per cent).
As the Liberals prepare to select a new leader, it is important to review the issue landscape in Canada. Almost three in 10 Canadians (29 per cent, down three points since August 2024) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most pressing concern, followed by the economy and jobs (22 per cent, down three points), health care (16 per cent, up one point), immigration (13 per cent, up three points) and the environment (six per cent, unchanged).
Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in 2021 are more likely to identify immigration as the most important issue facing Canada (16 per cent) than those who cast ballots for the Liberals or the New Democrats (nine per cent each). Still, the prevalence of housing, homelessness and poverty as a federal concern should be noted. At least three in 10 Albertans (30 per cent), Ontarians (33 per cent), Atlantic Canadians (also 33 per cent) and British Columbians (38 per cent) say this is the most pressing issue right now. This is very different from what we observed on the eve of the 2019 and 2021 federal elections, when fewer than one in five Canadians (16 per cent and 15 per cent respectively) felt this way.
The next 90 days will see the anointment of a new Liberal leader, who will inherit a daunting task. The Conservative party has done a remarkable job connecting with Canadians aged 35-54, who may be experiencing Canada differently through their young children and/or aging parents. More than half of middle aged decided voters (51 per cent) are currently behind the Conservatives. These same voters were crucial in Trudeau’s 2015 majority government and the minority mandates earned in 2019 and 2021. Enticing them back into the Liberal fold will not be easy.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from Jan. 3-5, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
